What lasting impact will COVID-19 have on the environment?

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused huge devastation worldwide in terms of deaths, illness and economic collapse.

Yet lockdown has also led to a very welcome drop in air pollution, thanks to the global reduction in travel and industrial production.

In the UK, Boris Johnson has promised to ‘build back better, build back greener, build back faster’. Is it possible to bring the pandemic under control, while also sustaining these benefits for our environment?

Reduced pollutants

A recent article from the Australian Academy of Science outlines the considerable drop in global greenhouse gas emissions including carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄); as well as other pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and small particulate matter (PM_2.5)_.

The European Environment Agency’s monitoring data showed NO₂ levels were down 56% in Madrid and 40% in Lisbon from one week to the next. Data from UK air monitoring stations showed that NO₂ fell by 60% in some cities compared with the same period in 2019.

In terms of CO₂, the International Energy Agency forecasts that global emissions will decrease by 8% in 2020 – the largest ever fall.

Environmental effects

However, it’s less clear what effect the reduction in CO₂ emissions will have on atmospheric pollution levels. The ability of the planet to absorb CO₂ has been badly diminished by the long-term degradation of ecosystems.

Atmospheric scientists have estimated that even if there was a global 10% drop in CO₂ emissions sustained all year, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations would still rise by 2ppm in 2020.

Levels resuming

Furthermore, as lockdown eases, pollution levels are creeping back up.

In China, for example, energy usage and emissions are already returning to their usual levels.

Additionally, there are concerns that countries might relax their environmental policies or reduce investment in renewable energy during the pandemic, perhaps in a bid to restore their economies.

Travel and work changes

However, the pandemic is likely to bring about about permanent changes to the way we travel, work, and socialise.

We have learned how technology can enable businesses to function on a remote working basis, and some companies are already moving towards permanent home working.

Organizations have also discovered that teleconferencing can replace many face-to-face meetings, cutting the need for travel, including international flights.

In the UK, the Government has fast-tracked plans for wider pavements and pop-up bike lanes – though it is not yet certain whether public transport passenger levels will recover.

Health effects

Another driver for change may be an increased public understanding of the effect of poor air quality on our health.

The World Health Organization estimates that outdoor air pollution causes 4.2 million premature deaths per year worldwide. One calculation suggests that the reduction in air pollution caused by lockdown might save 53,000 to 77,000 lives in China alone.

Additionally, an upcoming Harvard study finds that even a small increase in long-term exposure to PM_2.5 is linked to a significant increase in the COVID-19 death rate, while Italian research suggests that long-term exposure to NO₂ could be one of the most important contributors to COVID-19 fatalities.

Behavioural change

Could the COVID-19 crisis lead to greater recognition of the impact of human activity on our air quality, and thereby bring about long-lasting environmental change?

Professor Benjamin Felzer of Lehigh University tells phys.org that he is doubtful, but says: ‘I think as people are getting outdoors more, they are recognizing that the air and water quality are improving. Anecdotally, some are also observing more wildlife […].

‘Climate change resulting from carbon emissions is more long term, but the direct effects of pollutants are short term enough for people to visualize and understand.’

Looking ahead

Professor Felzer suggests there might be another shift in attitudes.

‘People should be able to now see that it is necessary to prepare for what is to come (i.e. the exponential growth of COVID-19 or climate change), not just for current conditions […] The current crisis shows that waiting for the impacts to hit can be disastrous.

‘Both the current pandemic and climate change are foreseen events that can be addressed―it's just a matter of political will. But it is difficult to build political will to prevent future disasters, rather than reacting to what is happening in the moment.’

Clearly, the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about long-term changes to our global society. Whether there is now a drive to limit climate change by ‘building back greener’ remains to be seen.

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